Quote:
Originally Posted by benjulmag
I would think though that to pass muster with forensic dating, every material of which the card is composed must not only not contain any substance that was not commercially available in 1909, but must also match up perfectly with the substance cocktail of which T206s are composed. I can see how the cost to do this, as well as comply with all other forensic tests (e.g., dot matrix pattern) could be quite large. And it would seem to me if someone knew to do this, I'm not sure counterfeiting Wagners would be the most profitable thing to counterfeit. After all, in addition to everybody's radar being up when a previously unknown Wagner surfaces, the fact that they would be turning up at a certain rate in and of itself will be a basis for suspicion. Therefore there would be a very limited number of times a counterfeiter would be able to go to the well on this with that in and of itself not becoming a cause for insurmountable suspicion.
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Anyone remember 1984 Star #101 Jordan's, when out of the original supposed print run of 4,000, it seemed like 14,000 were still out there after they caught fire in the early to mid-'90's? Or the 1985 Chong Modesto A's McGwire, when, despite a supposed original print run of 250 or so, they were everywhere during and after 1998? Up goes supply, down goes $$$ value.
As one that prefers to see the glass half-full, however, I believe that whenever something like a card is produced by a different process and/or with different materials than the original, there will be differences. With technological advances, those differences may be difficult to detect, but I am convinced that they will indeed be detectable. The costs of detection may rise considerably, however. Invest in grading companies now??? A most interesting proposition to discuss (not the investment in TPG companies, but the detectability issue itself). The same concerns would seem to apply equally to the coin collecting field, with the possibility of using computers to conceivably re-create dies to stamp out coins of famous rarities, like the 1804 silver dollar, 1913 liberty head nickel, etc., assuming you could also duplicate the metalurgical contents of the planchets from which the coins themselves are struck by the dies. At the moment, there are a lot more coins that have sold for $100,000 plus than cards, and quite a few collections have sold for sums into 8 figures. There's a lot of money at stake there, and at stake here. In such circumstances, the financing necessary to devise counter-measures of detection will be in place, almost regardless of the expense. Different processes and times of manufacture will leave different footprints, IMO.
May your collecting always be a prosperous proposition, even as to those that think I should find a new hobby after more than 20 years!
Larry