Overall, I agree the philly show has declined since the days of Fort Washington/George Washington, however, I would be hesitant to completely write off the Valley Forge show at the moment.
I was at Valley Forge Friday night, and I honestly went anticipating this to be the last Valley Forge show I would go to. I expected far fewer dealers, limited inventories, and outrages prices. However, I personally found more prewar material that I was interested in than either the last couple Valley Forge shows or the Oaks show.
I think the way we view a show, whether we consider it a good show or not, is based on what we are able to find that fits our own collecting interest and, at least to some degree, that the prices are also what we consider fair. I don't think anyone is going to thrilled about a show in which they leave without getting anything.
In addition, I don't get the argument that the philly show is now an "autograph" show and that is why the show is going downhill or why people are not buying from the dealers. When the show was in Fort Washington, I only remember there being 1 or maybe 2 autograph guests each day. This past weekend there were, if I counted correctly, 23 for the weekend. So there is no question the show now has more autograph guests. However, I never hear anyone comment about the Chantilly Show being an autograph show. Yet, if I counted right, there are 34 guests scheduled for October. And still I consistently hear how good the Chantilly Show is for vintage material and everyone consistently seems excited to go. I don't remember the exact number of autograph guests from the Oaks show, but I do remember it was more than a handful. So, why are we referring to the philly show as being dominated by autographs and that the autographs being the cause for the shows demise but yet this is not mentioned for the other shows? For this reason I don't think you can site the number of autograph guests as being the reason for the decline in the show.
I would say the Oaks show needs a bit of time to mature and see which way it is going, for traffic to increase, and to make all dealers want to switch. I would add based on the first show that there is definitely potential. For the Philly Show, I think Hunt needs to figure out exactly what is wrong and to do something to change it quickly because people already seem to think the show is doomed. At least in my opinion this past show seemed like it was better than the last couple shows, but is far from where it needs to be. In the short term, I think both shows have areas they need to improve. I agree with Alan though that only one of the shows will continue for the long term. How they deal with their issues will I think determine which one will survive. Personally, I think its easier to bring in new customers (Oaks) than to convince unsatisfied customers to return (Valley Forge). With that in mind, I think if you see any improvement in attendance for the November Oaks show, which I think we will, I would lean toward setting up at Oaks.
dj
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