(Preface- I don't buy/sell near as much as many on the board, so all just based on my opinion/experiences, or as I've come to learn IMHO)
Some sets seem closer than others.. the rationale I've always heard is they're more accurate on sets who's examples sell more often (makes sense), so they have a better basis for value. That said, Cracker Jacks are a JOKE too!! I'd love to be able to buy a 3 graded 1915 CJ Grover Alexander for $175, but am pretty sure that's never going to happen. The only one I know sold recently (outside eBay) was a 2, which I think got no less than $995... it's now being offered on eBay for $1099. SMR for that card=$110=??HUH??. Other sets I've bought extensively, have been much closer to SMR.. 1933/1934 Goudeys- though most seem to be available for less aside from Gehrigs/Ruths/Deans/Greenberg/etc, T206 give or take, the Play Ball sets. Postwar Bowman/Topps seem pretty close to me.
NOT close- the afore mentioned CJ's. 1938 Goudey Heads Up- not near as bad as CJ, but seem to be worse than other Goudeys. T202- these seem to sell all over the map with respect to SMR.. have gotten several HOFer's for 45-65% of SMR, but have had to go well over for some of the popular ones.
I only sniff the surface of some of the rarer stuff/sets, so have no valid opinions there.
Anyway, IMHO I think price guides of any kind are still invaluable. They offer much of the basis for the "I got a great deal!"(s), and "what should I list this for?"(s) of collecting. I think it would be chaotic without them, and would prevent some buyers and sellers from participating. I know I'd bid a LOT less confidently if I didn't have the SMR to use as a quick starting point... I do use a pretty extensive list of past auctions/prices/pictures to refer to before any large purchase.. I do this part manually, as I'll never be willing to pay for the VCP.
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