[aljurgela]

Thanks John. I am excited about getting the cards and I think that your take on the value side of the equation is right. You just can't get this stuff for what you used to. If you did a search of all the great negro league stuff that sold in the 1998-2005 range you would be shocked at how much prices have risen....

But if we look at baseball cards as stocks (which by the way, I think is a dangerous way to look at any hobby), we may want to consider the "market cap" of certain players.

For those not from a finance background, the market cap is defined as the number of shares times the value of those shares. This is one way to compare companies and quickly can make a company with a $500/share price look "cheap" when compared to a $5/share company (along with other analytics like PE/growth, etc).

Of course there are "desirability" issues that make things more complex (collectors would prefer one issue over another) and card grading that make this analysis even more difficult... but the pretense is basically... "how much would ALL of the cards of X player cost to accumulate". This can be estimated, at least in an order of magnitude basis. Let's take the Mendez - who appears on more issues than any other NL HOFer from the era as an example - I will slightly overestimate the average "valuation" NL (and underestimate a modern star) prices to make a point (parenthesis are the number of graded copies as of today):

1910 Punch (2): 1 at 30k, 1 at 70k = 100k
1923-24 Billiken (9): 9 at 10k = 90k
1923-24 Nacionales (9): 9 at 8k = 72k
1923-24 Tomas Guitierrez (4): at 4 at 12.5k = 50k
1924-25 Aguilitas (8): 8 at 5k = 40k

Total value of all graded Mendez cards: < $400k
% of Mendez cards that are graded: 66%
Total value of Jose Mendez cards: $600k


This implies that the value of all the Mendez cards in existence would be roughly $600k. Is this high, is this low? It only matters as it compares to other players of the same caliber. Who would be a similar point of comparison? Why don't we pick Satchel Paige (as he has a dearth of cards issued during his playing time):

1948 Leaf: (SGC 40 –can’t find this actual # PSA 118 – 150 estimate): 150 at 5k = $750k
1953 Topps: (SGC 334, PSA 1,657 – 1,991 – 2000 estimate): 2000 at 200 = $400k

Total value of Satchel Paige graded cards: $1,150k
% of Paige cards that are graded: 80% - rough market cap $1.4 million

The next part of the analysis is: the relative valuation 1.4/.6mm. Was Satchel Paige more than “twice” the pitcher that Mendez was? I am not sure, but it does not seem unreasonable. Is Satchel undervalued? Is Mendez overvalued? These are relative decisions and will be highly dependent on your own assumptions.

Of course, these are all opinions and can only be best seen under a more thorough analysis using the metrics that individuals deem as appropriate.
When you try this with any comparable HOFers (Pop Lloyd to Wagner, Charleston to Mays), you may arrive at the conclusion that many cards are undervalued of the NLers, as I have. Then again, you may not.

Good luck.