[ls7plus]

As long as there is baseball, the nature of the game is such that there will always be interest in its history--that history is what we hold in our hands every time we buy a Cobb, Ruth, DiMaggio, Matty, Jackson, etc. It is, as several previous posters have pointed out, a story of America, and early Americana that is both rare and significant has and will continue to gain and retain substantial value. Just a few weeks ago, I watched an episode of "Pawn Stars," where the pawn shop owner turned TV star made an offer of $125,000 for a rare John Wilkes Booth wanted poster WHICH ITS' OWNER, A COLLECTOR/DEALER OF SIGNIFICANT ITEMS OF THE ERA, TURNED DOWN!

Baseball cards, as collectibles, are not now and have not been in the past, separate and distinct from other collecting areas with regard to the forces driving collectible markets. Instead, they are merely different examples of the very same phenomenon. There have always been economic upturns and downturns, accompanied by many a prediction that "the sky is falling!" I have at least attempted to study the coin market dilligently for the last 20 years or so, because it became obvious to me that coins had already gone through many of the things our hobby later experienced (Topps and company didn't start the contrived scarcity phenomen with their insert cards, for example; Philadelphia mint officials did that with their creation of scarce to downright rare pattern coins in the 1850's, which were intended from the outset to generate a personal profit by being sold to collectors), and the same, basic collector mind-set prevailed in that forum. Coin collectors have believed that values had peaked since at least the 1930's! Yet the following examples of truly rare and significant coins well illustrate what has happened in the coin market over the last half-century or so (values taken from well-known coin dealer Jeff Garrett's book, "100 Greatest U.S. Coins," published by Whittman):

1796 "No Stars" quarter eagle ($2.50 gold piece)--1960: $2500;
1980: $20,000; 2003: $75,000; 2005: $85,000;
2008: $150,000 Note that this is a coin which is believed to have a
surviving mintage of 100-200 examples. Values given are for one in
about uncirculated condition [think ex-mint to near-mint for cards]

1802 half dime--this one is a coin where less than 50 examples are
believed to have survived (a number, which in coins, is deemed to
warrant being categorized as extremely rare)--1960: $2000;
1980: $25,000; 2003: $75,000; 2005: $100,000;
2008: $150,000 Values given are for an example in extremely fine
(think EX+ in cards).

It might be interesting to note that these two examples were picked entirely at random from the book, simply by opening it to the pages where they were discussed without forethought. It is also noteworthy that the advancing average age of collectors, and a seeming inability to attract younger participants to collecting, has been a source of major concern in that field for at least 20 years!

Coins also went through the equivalent of our late '80's, early '90's era, where cards like the '89 Upper Deck Griffey Jr., '90 Leaf Frank Thomas, etc., which were actually quite common, soared in book value, based primarily on speculative investing. Only in coins, the speculative but quite common items were the darlings of the late '50's to early '60's, like rolls of 1950D nickels (which went from $100 per roll to as much as $1300, then fell back to the $300 range), or later on, common date and mintmark Morgan silver dollars, graded and slabbed in extremely high mint grade (can anyone say modern PSA 10 cards?).

The point is, of course, that rare and significant items have an inherent ability to withstand changing trends and economic times and conditions--always have, always will. It's simply part of the human psyche that these things are highly desireable and thus valuable.

But what if I'm wrong? Can the bottom fall out of the market? I think the answer to that one lies in the reasons for the downturn, but would suggest that barring an ability on the part of counterfeitors to utilize modern technology to duplicate original vintage cards to the point that their product was truly indistinguishable from the original, what would happen is that there would be a lot of people like me and others who are members of this board that would be delighted to jump back into the market to pick up items like E107 HOF's, 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruths, 1907 W600 Cobbs and 1910 T210 Jacksons at a mere fraction of their current values! So many, in fact, that there wouldn't be much of a fall in values to be had, for very long. As the bottoming out occurred and was followed by a resurgence as the market picked up steam, new collectors/investors would be drawn in, and it wouldn't be long before rare and significant items were booking at their old values.

As I've posted before, my wife, upon accompanying me to one of the Strongsville shows in the early '90s, thought $5,000 was too much to pay for a 1916 M101-4 Ruth rookie in near-mint/mint condition. Undoubtedly, she believed an old piece of cardboard with ancient ink on it would never be more valuable than it was at that time. The flaw in that line of thinking is that we collectors are not buying an old piece of cardboard with ink configured thereon to present Mr. Ruth's image--what we are buying is part of baseball's storied, glorious past; indeed, as best we can accomplish it, WE ARE BUYING BABE RUTH HIMSELF, just as purchasers of ancient Roman coins are buying a part of that empire, a still-preserved portion of days of glory and world dominance that we cannot help but see as utterly fascinating.

Just my $2.50 worth!

Best regards, and what a great thread!

Larry