We're Safe for at Least 30 3ears
Here's my two (or maybe three) cents:
-I think that vintage pre-war will maintain value for a long-time to come. After all, it seems like a large percentage of us responding (myself included) are in our early 30s. We will continue to buy cards for at least 30 years to come. Plus, as we get older and our kids move out, we should have more disposable income. So I think vintage cards are safe to at least keep pace with inflation for 30+ years.
-I believe that currently produced limited numbered cards of key sets will be worth good money in the future. This is because all of us are watching these people play and there's something exciting about owning a rookie card of a player you've seen play. (specifically the Pujols rookies could continue to climb to crazy prices)
[parenthetical side note: are there more '52 Topps Mantles out there or Pujols Bowman Chrome cards (print run of 500)? I'd rather own a Pujols rookie in a heart beat because I never saw Mantle play and have seen Pujols (plus I am a Red Sox fan and wouldn't spend money on anything Yankees)
-I think cards from the 60s and 70s will stay stagnant or go down in price. Our generation never saw those guys play. We will either gravitate to the pre-war *old and rare is cool) or the modern, but why do I care about cards from the 1960s?
-I believe that the oddball and rare vintage cards will continue to rise the most. The internet makes it easy to research the esoteric and oddball cards that in the past were overlooked.
-I think the international market will also help. The World Baseball Classic should help to drive interest in international markets.
-I think soccer cards will actually rise in price, specifically cards of Pele from the 1950s. Globally soccer is the most popular sport and cards (or stickers from Panini) are part of this allure. Some day some American whiz kid will do for soccer cards what Tiger Woods did for golf cards (who woulda' thought that mid-80s Golf cards would be worth anything? Or an SI for Kids card?)
-In a nutshell, if you are investing you should be selective to only rare (true for both vintage and modern) and aim for a 7 year investment or less. If you are collecting then buy what you enjoy and know you will get more from your hobby some day than if your hobby was owning horses.
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