[ls7plus]

We'll never know just how many examples of a given card are out there, but you get a pretty good idea from experience: how often have you seen the card show up in auctions--especially major ones--over the years; if you google it, how many show up as currently being offered for sale, or having sold over the years; if you maintain a continuing e-bay search, how often does the card pop up over time; in the past, a consideration was how many times have you seen it at major shows; and, with regard to card grading, what is the pop report? What do dealers with a lot of long-term experience in the area of the type of card at issue think about how rare the card is?

Now, we all know that the pop report is only one indicator. But with what you believe to be a really tough card, how fast is the number that have been graded growing over time (especially after it has already reached significant price levels, such as $1,000+)? I can tell you that in a study of the coin market, the percentage of a given coin that reputable dealers/authors believe to exist is usually proportional to the value of that coin--as the item in question rises in value, a higher percentage of those that exist appear as having been graded in the pop reports. So grading has value from this perspective, AS ONE FACTOR TO BE CONSIDERED. It also gives a buyer who has not had the opportunity to inspect the card the assurance that it is most likely authentic, and that it has not been substantially under or overgraded (what you want to buy, of course, with truly scarce to rare items, when possible, is an example that is at the higher end of the stated grade--eye appeal counts!).

I still think that with cards, the set collectors know far more about how tough a given card is, or have a better idea of how many ungraded examples are still out there than anyone else. That's why this board is such a good resource for hall-of-fame or player collectors like me.

Regards,

Larry