Phil,
Like you I wonder if the experience at Nationals is worth the expense. Especially, when you say that you could spend the $1000.00 on a nice card at auction. I don't own a card that is worth that much, so it sounds like a no-brainer. Stay at home and enjoy your new card.
BUT... Nationals is a collecting experience on steroids.
I've only gone a couple of times, but I haven't regretted spending the money to get there. True the prices are higher than what you would spend at eBay. But you will see so many beautiful cards. I remember at my first Nationals that my jaw dropped when I saw a whole case of vintage Mantles. All the cards that I owned as a kid were there in any condition that a collector could afford. In my ignorance I thought that 1961 Mantle was really rare, but there were enough Mantles in that one vendor's case to wall paper my bathroom with them.
I also think that you can get some buys if you look carefully. My strategy is to look for small vendors who have accumulated a large collection throughout the years and just want to sell what they have collected for a fair price. I bought a raw T206 Cy Young in VG condition for $150.00 last year in Cleveland. I haven't seen one sell for under $250.00 on eBay this past year. I know there are several other collectors that I met in Cleveland last year and made some good deals.
This brings me up to the most important reason to go to Nationals. Its a great place to meet your fellow Net54 members. Hopefully there will be another Net54 dinner this year, but even meeting members on the floor was well worth the price I paid to attend the event.
Best wishes,
Joe