Carlton...
The lingering 1% chance that it is real definitely does eat away at us, as collectors. And to your point, most (if not all) of the cons are just circumstantial. But when you put the facts all together, you have a pretty clear answer.
Plus, the seller never pictured the back, which seems fishy. No mention of an easel-back or other mounting device. And the corners/borders do not show proper aging... one would expect more rounding of the botttom corners as well as various edge faults.
None of this is described by the seller. Normally on an authentic piece of this magnitude, there would be a dozen photos, including close-ups of the key features. The one single distant photo served as a tip-off to me, that it's a reproduction. Plus (to David's point) the seller made no claims as to its authenticity.
But still that 1% chance will drive us nuts
