If you make 10% each flip, after 80 flips you end up just over $100K, which might get you there. Figuring 2 months per flip puts you at 13-14 years. Add 50% for lags, occasional misses, etc, makes it about 21 years.
Someone check my math? I think that's right but am not doing this on paper.
The biggest problem I see with what I just wrote is that it's unlikely that $100K will still get you a Wagner in 21 years. Selling for > 10% profit will help (although I'm sure that you would always sell for the most possible). Less obvious would be the effect of quicker turnarounds. The price of the Wagner would not gain as much if there is less time per turn.
But taking the effect of profit and turnaround time together, it's easy to see how one monster deal (or monster loss) could have a big impact on the time it takes to do this. Even really big profits or quicker turnarounds early on would help. Let's say that you get to where you buy one for $100 and then sell it for $200 instead of the 10% of $110. That may seem like an innocuous amount, but it cuts the same time off of the process as buying one for $50,000 and selling it for $100,00 immediately (thus reaching the end point in this hypothetical) without going through $55,000, etc.
It does sound fun though. I hope the analysis above didn't deflate the fun aspect of by making it too numerical.
Joann
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