Smr
I think SMR book prices is the issue, not that demand for post-war vintage has dropped. If your argument is "post-war vintage cards aren't selling for book", then yes, you will lose every time (recession or no recession) as book prices have historically represented the top end price for almost all cards and are almost never realized.
As for pre-war cards, I think any smart consumer recognizes that these cards are a safe investment IF YOU HAVE THE $ and KNOWLEDGE to play the game.
Here's my question: If you had 100 grand to spend on cards and your primary goal was to purchase cards that would appreciate in value over time, would you buy pre-war tobacco cards, etc. or load up on high-grade HOF golden era rookies (Mantle, Koufax, Mays, Clemente, etc)??
I think the argument could be made that supply of high grade post-war cards will stay low enough and demand will be steady (no one family can flood the market with thousands more Clemente cards) and thus a 100 grand investment in these cards could pay dividends.
Here's my issue with the pre-war ones, I think a big chunk of collectors buy cards for the player on the card and memories of post-war players are still fresh with many while pre-war players will fade in the public's conscience as the years roll on...JMO
|