Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt
To illustrate this point better, consider the inverse of your argument. Using your numbers, there is a 90% chance Demitt is a 350 only back and a 90% chance O'Hara is a 350 only back. By your logic (multiplying the probabilities), therefore, there is an 81% chance that they are 350 only backs which contradicts your finding above (of it being a 99% probability).
A such, I don't think you can multiply the probabilities in this case.
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Simple statistics error. Never add or multiply the chance of something happening, rather multiply the chance something won't happen.