Posted By:
Chris EastI used to be a huge Mussina fan, but then I met him and, well, James Feagin's above "chalkboard" comment pretty much summed up my thoughts of him since (anyone want about 10,000 shiny Mussina cards from his Orioles days?).
If his career ended today, he has very little chance. If he reverts back to his 2007 performance and hangs on for one more comparable season, then he is still likely left out. But, if he can finish this season as strongly as his first half has been, and he strings together an additional 1-2 seasons comparable his '08 performance to date (a big if) to put him above 300 wins, then he definitely gets in.
In his defense, as has been pointed out above, he likely lost at least one 20-win season due to MLB work stoppage. Also, he was victimized by poor bullpen performance on many occasions in his career, particularly with the O's pen and/or poor run support in a number of games costing him a couple of 20-win seasons (and quite possibly a Cy Young award). There were a number of games where he got the loss or a no-decision after pitching 7-9 innings and giving up 0-2 runs. I know that every pitcher has that same problem, but it seems that Mussina caught that sort of bad luck (maybe karma) at the most inopportune times.
Another factor that could come into play with Mussina's HOF chances, regardless of how his final stats turn out, is the steroid debate. Maddox/Glavine are likely locks and don't appear at present to be tainted by the steroid issue. Clemens should also be a lock, but the steroid question has popped up in his situation. Depending on when he retires (and when guys like Pettite, Schilling, Pedro Martinez, etc retire) Mussina could be the first true borderline (stats-wise) pitcher eligible who pitched essentially his entire career during the steroid era. Right now the backlash is against hitters. If that continues, then he could receive a favorable nod. If, however, Clemens gets comparable treatment to McGwire/Sosa/et al, and a few more high-profile pitchers get outed for PEDs, then the voters' sentiments could turn against pitchers as well.