Posted By:
Scot
Hi Ted,
I derived the 3,000 number from the Demmitt (St. Louis) hypothetical presented in my e-book. It goes something like this:
1. Assume there are about 200 copies of Demmitt (St. Louis) in existence.
2. We know they are all Polar Bear.
3. Further assume Demmitt (St. Louis) experienced a normal Polar Bear print with the 350-only group.
4. Polar Bear appears on about 6.6% of 350-only subjects.
5. Therefore, there are about 200 / .066 = 3,030 copies of a typical 350-only subject in existence.
6. The number of copies of a typical 350/460 RP subject in existence would be roughly similar (maybe a little higher).
I expect based on our recent discussions that you probably would not accept premise #3, and that you may also have a problem with premise #1.
There are also other considerations that come to bear, for example, the fact that there are Polar Bear "no prints" in the 350-only group means that considerably more than 6.6% of the 350-only subjects with which Polar Bear is possible have the Polar Bear back (the percentage may be more like 10%).
Based on all this, I would not expect you to necessarily "buy in" to the 3K estimate. But it's just a matter of rough ballparking anyway.
As always, I welcome your thoughts.
Scot