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Posted By: David Smith

To all,

The point of this thread was to ask about the study I mentioned. THe one that said most Offensive players best years were at ages 27 and 28, why they said that and how they went about proving it.


Now, as far as Dunn is concerned, he is a JOKE!!.

John DeWan says he is one of the worst Left Fielders in the NL and has been for at least four years. This year, he is leading all NL Left Fielders with five Errors and that doesn't even take into consideration his lack of range and weak arm.

A couple of years ago, Bill James said that Dunn (and Richie Sexson) were "old skill" players and look where Sexson is now. I SERIOUSLY doubt Dunn will make it past age 32 as a Major League player. Heck, he is a platoon player this year, according to his stats.

Against Left Handed Pitching this year, he is hitting .179 (15 for 84) with three Home Runs and eight RBI's. Dusty Baker has already sat him a couple of times against Left Handed Pitchers and has also removed him late in the Games for a Pinch Runner or for a Defensive replacement. With C. C. Sabathia now on the Brewers, I expect Dunn will either continue to struggle and his stats get even worse or he will find himself riding the pine when the Reds face the Brewers and Sabathia is Pitching.

Home Runs.

In five of the past seven years, Dunn has hit mroe Home Runs at Home than on the Road, so, sure he hits them but big deal. Bill James says that Great Amreican Ball Park (I call it Great American Small Park) inflates Left Handed hitters power numbers by 27%. Since 2003, Dunn's Home Run numbers show that he has hit roughly 56% of his Home Runs at GASP and 44% on the Road, or about 22% more at Home than on the Road. For a guy with his power, he SHOULD be able to hit Home Runs ANYWHERE but he doesn't.

One of the reasons he DOESN'T is because he rarely swings at Strikes over the outer third of the plate. That is why he has a career Batting Average of .248 while Striking Out 165+ times a year and also being able to draw 100 Walks. If a Pitch is out there, he is most likely going to take it and HOPE that the Pitcher makes a mistake.

Most of his Home Runs this year have been on Fast Balls and have been pulled to Right Field. Dunn LIVES for belt high Fast Balls out over the middle of the plate. Anything else and he has trouble, especially Sliders, which eat him alive.

You think Dunn is like other power hitters? Nope. Since 2003, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrel have about an equal 50/50 split as far as hitting Home Runs at Home and on the Road. Lance Berkman and ALbert Pujols have hit more of thier Home Runs on the Road during those years. Only Chipper Jones is like Dunn as far as hitting a higher percentage of their Home Runs at Home instead of on the Road.

I used 2003 because that is when GASP first opened. I used those players because they are all NL players who have been on one team for the entire time period, who have been relatively healthy and have a large enough sample size of At Bats to make some type of conclusion about their stats.

Dunn regularly hits 40 or more Home Runs but he struggles to get to 100 RBI's. His career Batting Average with Runners In Scoring Position is .220. This year Dunn has 24 Home Runs and 54 RBI's and is again struggling with RISP. Compare Ryan Howard and Dunn. Both have Struck Out a lot and both have Batting Averages below .239. However, whi8le Dunn is hitting about .215 with RISP, Howard is hitting well over .300. So, even if Howard has had more opportunities, he has ALSO come through more in those opportunities. In past years, Dunn HAS had similiar opportunites as Howard but HASN'T come through.


From 2004 -2007, Reds lead-off hitters ranked in the upper third of the NL as far as getting on base. In 2007, the Reds number one and number two hitters, combined, were ranked second in all of the NL as far as getting on
base. So, again, Dunn has had guys on but he has NOT come through very often.


Walks.

This is what kills me about his fans, they say his Walks are a GOOD thing. Well, if you mean they keep him from making Outs then, yes, they are a GOOD thing. However, when you consider he has the power to hit a Home Run in every At Bat, then not swinging the bat and taking the Walk hurts the Offense.

Dunn doesn't run the bases well and has been thrown out at least twice this year while trying to score from First on a Double. Dunn wont Steal Bases so him taking a Walk doesn't really put fear into the Pitcher. Actually it helps the Pitcher because he can then throw breaking and off speed Pitches to the following batters because he wont have to worry about Dunn Stealing.

The Pitcher also doesn't have to throw over to First Base very much which means there is less chance of a throwing Error and the Pitcher can devote more concentration to getting the batter Out. Finallym, withy Dunn anchored at First Base, there is a really good chance for a Double Play.

Sure, the Walks help Dunn's On Base Percentage and OPS but so do HITS and THEY have a BETTER chance of driving in RUNS which Dunn is paid the big bucks to do and the reason why he is in the middle of the batting order to begin with. Now, if Dunn were a lead-off hitter then fine, let him get as many Walks as he can. But he is not.

That is why Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez might have similar On Base Percentages and OPS stats as Dunn BUT they attain theirs by getting HITS. Those Hits, in turn, give them more chances to drive in Runs, something Dunn's Walks do NOT do.

So, while Dunn has a career high of 106 RBI's, Pujols and Ramirez routinely drive in more while hitting less Home Runs than Dunn.

AWARDS.

Dunn has never won a Home Run title.
Dunn has never won an RBI title.
Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger.
Dunn has never won a Gold Glove.
I think Dunn has only been on one All Star team and was not a Starter.
Dunn has never won an MVP. In only two years has he even received any votes. The two years he did receive votes, he only finished 28th and 26th, respectively. With 16 teams in the NL, that means some teams had two or more guys get MVP votes AND finish higher than Dunn.
Last year, Dunn received NO MVP votes while teammate Brandon Phillips finished 22nd in MVP voting. This, even though, Phillips had fewer Home Runs and RBI's.

Based on all of this and the fact the Reds have NEVER had a winning season while he has been on the team, I say there is NO way Dunn gets voted into the Hall of Fame.

Sure, Reggie Jackon Struck Out a lot and hit Home Runs BUT he ALSO was an MVP and played on five World Series winning teams.

Harmon Killebrew had a low Batting Average and hit a lot of Home Runs but he did so when the Pitcher's mound was higher, the balls weren't juiced and the parks weren't as small.

I would LOVE to see guys like Killebrew, Schmidt, Stargell and McCovey hit against Pitchers throwing off a lower mound. I would LOVE to see them hitting balls that are harder than the ones used when they played. Finally, I would LOVE to see them hit in a bandbox like GASP.

David