Posted By:
bruce Dorskind
Many collectors (as well as dealers and investors)
experience the same recurring dream. Wondering into an isolated
antique shop or passing by a remote garage sale, one finds
a small group of "old baseball cards."
For argument's sake lets assume that the "find" is not
T206s or 33 Goudeys but a far more obscure set.
We wondered what were the chances that "the find" would
result in an ultra high grade example (defined as 7+ NQ
for this exercise).
We looked at eight reasonably difficult, but not impossible,
sets and here is what we found
Set PSA Graded PSA 7+ SGC Graded SGC 84+ Percentage UH
E 107 91 01 369 1 less than .05%
E 94 332 23 560 21 5%
E 300 67 27 21 2 33%
R 300 294 07 213 0 1.28%
R 306 53 01 149 0 less than .05%
R 328 1091 146 278 49 14.2%
R 333 1704 300 735 95 16,2%
T 200 631 8 71 1 7.3%
Clearly the "odds" against find a raw card that will obtain a very high
grade run somewhere between slim and none...but everyone once in
a great while...luck is on your side.
Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List