Posted By:
Eric BUsing the most popular vintage set as a guide, what percentage of T206 PSA 8's should get the bump to 8.5? If you said 50%, you are wrong! Or at least you should be.
The pop reports currently go from PSA 5 - 17600, PSA 6 - 9100, PSA 7 - 4150, PSA 8 - 2240, PSA 9 - 260. They very closely drop by 1/2 as you go towards the higher grades until you get a huge dropoff at the 9 level.
Therefore, if the rate slows down by half as you get higher, we should expect twice as many cards at the lower grade rather than the .5 grade. So 33% of the cards should get a bump. At least at the 6 or 7 level they should. But since the dropoff is higher at the 8 to 9 level, it should be closer to 20% deserving of the bump.
If half the cards end up getting the bump, then something is wrong. If this happens, I have a feeling that the 8.5's will get the prices that 8's currently have, but the non-bumped cards will lose value. Markets have a funny way of correcting themsleves from manipulation.