Posted By:
davidcyclebackBill your question is what the reasoning is of the bidders, rather than what it should be.
One should ask; 1) What is the chance of pulling a T206 from the pack? (And, conversely, what is the chance of not pulling a T206, or even not pulling anything but old cigarettes?); 2) If a T206 is pulled what will the condition be? Does sitting in a pack for 98 years ensure a Mint card or even a Near Mint card?; 3) If a T206 is pulled what are the odds it will be worth what I paid or more for the pack? (And, conversely, what are the odds it will be worth less?) Even if the Gods are smiling on you that day and you pull a T206 Nap Lajoie (Near Mint-- sharp but with a touch of tobacco stain and a little off center), will this worth what you paid for the pack?
Naturally many are bidding with the idea that there's a chance for a Gem Mint 10 Honus Wagner (Heck, even a Nrmt-Mt 8 will suffice), but you're as likely to find one in your underwear drawer.
I've seen where people bid, say, $2,500 on a Sweet Caporal pack where the pack couldn't be pinpointed to the T206 era. One of those classic "1909-1919" packs. Even if the pack was from 1909-11 and even if the winning bidder pulled a T206 card from the pack (which means the winning bidder is already having one sweet f*cking lucky day), what are the chances the card will be worth $2,500? I would say the chances are slim.