Posted By:
Corey R. shanusI think Peter S and Scot have nailed it -- in any market there are inefficiences that can lead to grossly above normal returns, which are hardly indicative of general market investment prospects. To truly put Bruce's hypothesis to a test, one would need to put together a basket of high-graded cards from a variety of issues, hold them for a period of time, then see what the ultimate return is net of transaction costs (e.g., net return from selling them after the auction house's cut is subtracted). Given the extraordinary appreciation over the past several years coupled with the potential bombshell if and when the extent of slabbed altered cards becomes exposed, it is very unclear to me how good a long term investment these cards are. For my nickel, I would invest in (1) geniune rarities (i.e., not condition rarities) where absurb price fluctuation based on de minimus condition variation does not receive such prominence or (2) high graded cards with impeccable provenance thus leading to market confidence the cards have not been altered.