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T206CollectorI would offer a simple analysis that could support a downward trend for 1933 Goudey cards.
a) Cards from the 1940's and later still bring in money from the crowd of people who saw the players featured on those cards play;
b) Cards from the 1930's and earlier rely primarily on, what I call, hearsay fans -- you heard about Ruth and Gehrig, but you never saw them play;
c) When collectors enter the market as hearsay fans, there are a number of factors that determine which cards they will target -- since they didn't see Ruth as often as they didn't see Cobb or Anson;
d) These fans are more likely to go back further than 1933, since tobacco cards are readily available;
e) Unless they have a desire to chase Ruth and Gehrig, more hearsay collectors are likely to turn to T206 cards because of their relative availability and affordability, and because they are nearly 25 years older than Goudeys; and
f) They don't keep going earlier than T206 since the availability and affordability of pre-T206 cards is a barrier to entering that market.
My conclusion: with the advent of internet/ebay and the aging/passing of the 1930's contemporaneous collectors, T206 will take market share from 1933 Goudey.
That's from my own personal experience as well -- my first great vintage card was a 1933 Goudey Grove I still have, bought in 1989. But when T206 became readily available to me on the internet, I all but lost interest in the 1933 Goudey cards. As collectors age and die out, I think this will happen more frequently into the 1950's and 1960's, etc.