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JK"By the time a player gets to the Big Leagues it's pretty well-known whether the guy will be a star or part of the supporting cast"
Where do you get this stuff from? Have you looked at some of the first year stats for players who are now regarded as bona fide stars? Many were not so great to start. Take a look at David Ortiz's stats. Between 1997 and 2002 he never batted over .300 for a full season, reached 20 HRs once, and never had more than 75 RBIs. Since joining Boston in 2003, he has never had less than 30 HRs or less than 100 RBIs in a season. In other words, he became a "star" six years into his career. Conversely, there are countless examples of players who are supposed to be "the next big thing" who dont amount to anything once they get to the majors.