Posted By:
Al C.risafulliI think that any item eople spend money on in both a primary and secondary market is subject to hiccups and downturns, upticks and corrections. It's the nature of the beast - events happen that trigger people's emotions, or divert their attention, and that changes the nature of a market.
That said, our hobby is different from, say, automobiles, where a greater economic change can really impact the industry, or where cheaper new cars can hurt sales of used cars.
In our hobby, the primary and secondary markets are very different from one another - they feed off each other but they often have entirely different customers. In the primary market, nobody's going to stop buying the latest shiny stuff just because someone wrote a book about a card that's 100 years old.
In the secondary market, most people are driven by a sense of history and nostalgia. That doesn't go away just because someone wrote a book or trimmed a card.
People will always be nostalgic. Some people will be nostalgic enough that they spend money on baseball cards. Think "The Card" is going to keep Ted Z from finishing his Sovereign T206 set? Think it's going to keep Jay Wolt from chasing after T3s? Think it's going to keep Leon from searching for those last few card types? Is "The Card" going to keep Mack McCleary from discovering the curling Hall of Fame, and searching for curling cards? Or Ted from looking for Black Sox cards?
Hell, no it won't. Perhaps it will chase some investment-type collectors out of the hobby on a temporary basis, but that won't last long. Others will look at it as a great opportunity to jump in and buy great cards at a lower price while they're available, and eventually the prices will come right back up.
If there's one thing that's constant in life, it's baseball. Where did I hear that?
-Al