Posted By:
CatPeter C:
The one thing you are right about is the liklihood of a down-turn or even a crash in card values. In my view, you are off on what will be the triggering event though ("The Card" won't contribute to it).
The triggering event is unpredictable but will happen. My belief is that it will be a more general economic durnturn that will subsequently splatter onto the card market.
There are two issues, as I see it, that will help nudge cards into a severe down-turn or a crash. But, perhaps the down-turn/crash won't happen until cards add another 100% or 200%. The first issue is that, I believe, at any given time there is vast inventory held by dealers/flippers. By nature, most won't or can't hold this inventory indefinately. Economic downturn always breeds frenzy... this frenzy would be a frenzy of selling. The second issue is something that has always amazed me. People, it seems to me, to often buy cards using debt. It's easy to pay back debt when you are flipping for profit, but when you flip at a loss (which has to happen some day), it will just compound the problem of decreasing card prices. Kind of like buying stocks on margin as an example.
The part that makes down-turns/crashs the most brutal is that they always happen when you least expect it. People normally overreact to a downturn as they commmonly overreact to the frenzy on the way up.