Posted By:
Scot Reader
John is right.
If I remember correctly, I came up with the 3,000 estimate as follows.
*Assume Demmitt (St. Louis) is a 350-only subject that was printed only with the Polar Bear back. (I believe this is correct for reasons that I won't elaborate on here).
*Assume the number of Demmitt (St. Louis) specimens extant is roughly 200.
*Assume Demmitt (St. Louis) is as prevalent as other 350-only subjects with the Polar Bear back.
*Survey data show that the Polar Bear back appears on roughly 6.6% of 350-only cards.
Therefore, the number of a typical 350-only subject extant is roughly 200 / 0.066, or 3,030. Round this to 3,000.
Assuming other T206 series are roughly as prevalent as the 350-only series, the total number of T206 specimens extant is roughly 3,000 * 520, or 1.56M. Round this to 1.5M.
Of course, these numbers are only as good as the assumptions.
Scot