Posted By:
Al C.risafulliI try really hard not to write about cards like an investor, but in the spirit of this thread...
If we're going to talk about this as an investment, then a big part of any investment involves WHEN you get in. Jim got into T206s in 8 at $200 a pop years ago, which is sort of like getting into Microsoft in the late 80s. The rate of return is huge. A home run for anyone who got in at that time. There's still a lot of upside to getting into Microsoft today, but the exponential growth will take longer, and likely be less.
Still a lot of upside to high-grade prewar cards, of course. There will always be new collectors who prefer this stuff, who have the cash, and who are willing to pay a premium for condition.
But Jay's point is a good one as well. I think for every big-money buyer of high-grade prewar, there is some multiple of that buying low-to-mid grade prewar. While the dollars are smaller, the upside potential in terms of percentage growth is probably a bit higher in the shorter term. A $100 investment in a lower-grade E-card HOFer two years ago is probably double or triple that today. As more people gravitate to prewar (because it is an infinitely cool niche in the hobby), this market will continue to thrive.
Ultimately in my mind there's a point somewhere in the prewar arena where "scarcity" and "condition" meet and create a perfect investment. For my money, if I had any, I'd always opt for scarcity over condition, because I do think that "condition" as a concept is a little dicey, for three reasons:
1) People improve the condition of cards, which increases the pops of higher-grade cards (the lower-grade ones, too, but the impact of one additional 8 is much greater than the impact of one additional 4)
2) People resubmit cards over and over until they wind up in the highest possible holder, which also increases pops.
3) There are still ungraded cards out there, even higher-grade ones, and while the finds are getting fewer and further between, they're still out there.
Cards that are scarce will remain so (with some exceptions, like George C Millers, which were mentioned elsewhere in this thread), and are thus, in my opinion, a better "investment" than higher-grade cards.
The best "investment", though, in my opinion, is in those cards where "scarcity" and "condition" meet - the highest-grade example of a scarce card.
Either way, in my opinion, two basic concepts in this thread are obvious:
1) Prewar cards are a good "investment", whether they be high-grade, off-grade, common, scarce, popular, unpopular, whatever.
2) There are lots of different people who collect in lots of different ways, and they're all equally relevant and important to the hobby. It's just as much of a thrill for me to read about Jim's latest PSA 8 conquest as it is for me to read about Jay's latest beater, Hal's latest HOF rookie card, Leon's latest 19th century scarcity, and someone's love for 2006 Topps Allen & Ginter. It's all cards, it's all good, and it's a pleasure to have a board like this where I can learn about all these different styles of collecting that shape the way I choose to collect.
Exhale.
-Al