Posted By:
bruce Dorskind
Gentlemen
Those of you who attended the Mastro dinner at the National were
given the book Carboard Gems co published by Mastro and PSA.
At the back of the book there is a portfolio analysis of 100 "collectible"
PSA 8 cards. (see pages 172-175)
Thirty five of the cards in the portfolio are pre-World War II, eleven cards
are from Bowman or Leaf in 1949,. forty-three cards are from the 1950's and
eleven cards are from the 1960's.
The cards are all Hall of Famers with a disproportionate number of Mantle
cards represented from the 1950's and 1960's sections.
Mastro's portfolio analysis compares 1995 prices with 2006 prices. It then compares
the result with the S&P and the Dow Jones averages for the same time period.
The card portfolio grew by 143%, the S&P 500 by 153% and the Dow Jones by 133%.
However, in the Mastro-PSA analysis, the T 206 Wagner is included in PSA 8
The value for 1995 is $430,000 and for 2006 it is $1,265,000 - an appreication in value
of $835,000. The entire portofilio with Wagner only grew by a little more than $1.4 million
Thus the Wagner represented about 60% of the growth in the portfolio.
If you take the Wagner out , the Mastro PSA card porfolio appreciates from $556,875 to
$1,136,940 or 104%.
In other words, when we eliminate a "unique card" (forgetting about whether or not it
really should be graded 8), the stock market outperforms cards by a wide margin.
My view, like Leon's is, that this is a HOBBY. If you are going to be an investor, then you
should become a professional investor, and avail yourself of the proper investment tools.
Super rare cards of well known players in top condition are generally so few in population
(PSA + SGG) that they almost never decrease in value. Whilst there is a great deal of
discussion about grading, there are proably 50+ wealthy collectors (with large disposable
incomes) bidding for less than 500 cards a year. (major auctions +Ebay)
Note: We are referencing only to low population, pre-WWII cards in PSA/SGC 7,8 and 9.
If we look at rare E , R and T cards with populations of less than 5 in conditions 7,8 &9
and their performance over the past ten years, my guess is that their compounded growth
rate (major auctions and E-Bay) is well in excess of 40% per annum.
For those who can afford to invest in the very best cards in the best condition, there is
little chance, that prices will ever fall.
Everything else in the hobby is pot luck...some odd-ball sets are hot some years and not
hot other years. Cards with large populations from the 1950's have, with a few exceptions,
not done well. The 1941 Playballs in PSA 8 have actually dropped in value, and the 1915 Cracker
Jacks in PSA 8 (with the exception of a few stars and low pop cards) are priced less than they
were five years ago.
You can't, in my opinion, go wrong collecting Impressionist Paintings. The rare, beauitful
and professionally (and accurarately graded cards) in top condition will always have more
buyers than sellers.
That said , the market is so thin ( I was the second under bidder on the aforementioned E-98)
that is difficult to make a strong case for rare baseball cards as an important part of
an individual or family's investment portfolio.
Thank you for your consideration. I would welcome your comments.