Posted By:
Brian GoldnerIMO, the hobby is not at all prepared to deal with these very dangerous issues.
At least now now.
At present, these problems are simply brushed under the rug, and conveniently forgotten about.
IMO, only if these things begin to happen often enough, to undermine the confidence of the buyers, to the point where the $$$ stops flowing, will anything be significantly addressed, on a hobby-wide basis.
Alterations/trimming etc. have been going on for decades, with those happening in earlier years (trimming), obviously being for different reasons, then that of the past 25-30 years or so, when restoration also entered into the equation.
To offer an opinion, as to what degree, is difficult.
With consideration to pre-war, i think that it is rather dependant upon the issue, as to what percentage of higher end graded material, may in fact, be altered.
To address the possibility of a Black Monday of sorts, i respectfully disagree with you Leon.
IMO, a significant downturn will eventually take place, but to what degree, is hard to say.
It is inevitable, regardless of the fact that the depth of buyers, is deeper than it was in the last cycle.
When it happens, i would think that people will still be buying to some degree, but i expect that it will be spotty, with interest generally being in specific things.
Outside of those specifics, it will be tough, as buyers won't be lining up to purchase material on that day, if a new prevailing wisdom is that the same material might be cheaper the following day.
Thanks everyone, Brian