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T206CollectorAnd basically, it depends on the reason a grading company goes out of business. For example, SCD no longer grades cards, but the cards in their holders are still more or less respected. If SCD got out of the business because they had no idea what they were doing, well then the story would be different.
The real question is are PSA, SGC and GAI going to be the Big 3 forever. The answer is, of course, no. And the next question is, well, what is forever? After all, Polar Bear is no longer the best scrap tobacco, notwithstanding the advert on the reverse of their T206 cards. What you want from a grader is respect in the industry at the time of grading. That is why I grade with SGC, because they have the highest respect among vintage card graders. If SGC goes out of business tomorrow, collectors will still trust their stuff, so long as the reason SGC went out of business is not fraud or poor grading.
At the end of the day, I collect SGC cards. But I am comfortable in the knowledge that 10 years from now I may have to have my entire collection crossed over into GCG (Google Card Grading), ICG (iPod Card Grading), or (most likely and frightening) ECG (eBay Card Grading) holders. I recently had 40 PSA graded cards crossed over into SGC holders, because I like consistency in my collection.
So long as transactions are being done over the internet, there will always be a need for independent third party grading and standards. And since the internet isn't going anywhere--
Finally, unlike modern cards, there are a limited number of vintage cards available. Eventually, every vintage card that is going to get graded will be graded (while some will invariably stay in family collections ungraded for hundreds of years). For this reason, a card grading company that grades only vintage cards has a short shelf life. That is why you see SGC trying to break into the modern card market and why that is the only real battle ground for PSA, GAI and SGC. Grading companies aren't banking on vintage cards for longevity. Although there are short term gains to be had in this market, it's more of a status/good will thing for them.