Posted By:
T206Collector"No offense, but anyone would have to be more than a little oblivious and greedy to think you would get a five-figure card for a hundred bucks. Ebay is very close to a perfect market from an information standpoint, meaning that everyone has the same access to the same information in real time. On a high-profile item it is inconceivable that it would draw only 1%-5% of value unless there is a significant problem with the listing or the item listed."
I think the problem is that even if bidders accept this as true, many delude themselves into thinking they have found one with a "significant problem with the listing of the item listed." For example, I won a T206 O'Hara on ebay (more on a parallel thread later), for under $700. The card was just graded by SGC as a 20 (or 1.5). It is probably worth $1,000-$1,200 in that condition. And there was much rejoicing for me, but why did I get such a good deal? I took a risk because the scan was shoddy, the seller had weak feedback and poor communication skills, but some people on this board knew the seller and vouched for his credibility and the likely authenticity of the card -- plus, he and I both live in New York, making a small claims court easily accessible to me. I lucked out and got a great deal. But even with all of the forementioned risk, the card still sold for about 50% to 60% of the final value.
On these Wagners, Planks and Ty Cobbs with Ty Cobb backs, the cards are not selling for anywhere near 50% to 60% of the final value, but much closer to 1%-5%. These percentages are directly related to the likelihood of authenticity and other details regarding condition. At 100% authentic/condition accuracy, a card will realize approximately 100% of its value on eBay. At 1% authentic/condition accuracy, a card will realize 1% of its value on eBay. I suspect the problem is that people are looking at Wagners with 0% likelihood of authenticty, crediting it with a 1% chance, and bidding accordingly. Sort of like purchasing 100 lottery tickets in a lottery with no actual payoff.
Buyers need to learn the percentages. The real deals on ebay are only found with a strong knowledge of these percentages in a given market as they apply to an individual auction.