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Posted By: barrysloate

Might as well get my two cents in here. Investing in vintage cards has certainly proven profitable over the last several years and that is undeniable. However, I get a sense that prices in certain areas of the market have risen too drastically and much of it makes very little sense. There is a very deep market for inexpensive and medium priced vintage cards. But when you begin to see some of the astronomical prices that some cards attain- a quarter of a million dollars for a 1914 Babe Ruth card, for example-it makes you want to look a little deeper at why some have risen so dramatically. From my long experience in the hobby I'm not sure the "crazy" prices are always an accurate gauge of the market. I would rather look at cards that trade with some frequency and seem to attain strong prices consistently. These are what I refer to as the meat and potatoes of the hobby.
But all overheated markets, as this one can reasonably be categorized, do eventually correct themselves and there is no question the card industry may be in the early stages of that. I'm not talking about a crash- I don't believe that will happen- but there are so many auctions with so many incredibly rare (or hyped as rare) items that at some point the market will just have to take a breather. Nothing goes up forever. There's nothing wrong with investing some of one's money in collectibles but they can and do go down and even some of the high flyers like Old Judge, tough e-cards, and others will not go up forever. I've seen many market dips over the years, and with the economy slowing down don't be surprised if in the not too distant future we will see a slowdown in our industry too. There is an incredible amount of money being channeled into collectibles but there are also many people cashing in and leaving the hobby. The baby boomers who started it all are getting older and many have gotten out. If too much material keeps hitting the market the supply and demand curve will shift and you may see more things out there than people can afford to buy. And with problems in the economy, my advise is not to get too carried away. And that is just one man's opinion.