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brian pDavid's estimate sounds like what I have heard as well. The Arbuckle card makes completing the 1919 set an incredibly daunting task. I have heard it said that the reason why there are so few of them around is that a good portion of them were destroyed by 'upstanding' citizens after Fatty became embroiled in the sex scandal/murder case involving a young woman during the 1920's.
By the way, I believe David's photo image (avatar?) is actually an elephant emerging through a keyhole during a snowstorm.
Brian