Posted By:
Gilbert MainesWell, Im sure that I could discuss this subject for quite a while, however, since it relys on projections, conjecture and other attempts to read between the lines, why speculate about it, one may ask. Because it may provide additional insight, or perhaps just be fun for some, perhaps.
Although I agree with most of the points which you raise, it is my guess that many high end cards are sitting in collections owned by persons who don't feel any urgency to have a grading service confirm what the owner already knows about the quality of his cards.
Additionally, as you state Hal, the potential emergence of subsequently recognized high end cards will not necessarilly devalue the initially identified ones. But if the grading focus and criteria shifts (as it did in coin collecting) todays GAI 10 can be tomorrows GAI 9.8.
That is, initially coin grading had the equivalent of a 9, 9.5 & 10 scale for uncirculated (mint) coins. When it was found that many coins actually fell between these grades they went for the equivalent of a 9.0, 9.1, 9.2 ... system of grading. This potential could impact the eventual value of the card which is selling tonight. But this is the stuff that crystal balls were made for. To really do well you need brass ones.
Good luck,
Gil