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BenShaq's rookies and Lebron's rookies are so overproduced that it comes as no surprise to me that their values fluctuate downwards after people move on to the next year's set. I am in complete agreement with you that vintage is the best bet if you plan to hang onto it for more than the standard 2 month buzz that it takes to get bored of new modern sets.
But that doesnt have anything to do with my Lebron as a player- he's freakishly talented.