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Gary B.While I understand the importance of home runs in terms of glory and stature, the other stats he's produced to me (and I would imagine to many others on this board who are students of the history of the game) are at least as impressive.
Bonds catching Aaron in homers is VERY doable, and him catching Ruth is beyond doubt, barring major injury. The man has 681 home runs right now, and he's on pace to hit about 20 more this year. That would make him need just 14 more next year to beat Ruth. If he hits 40 next year (and given his numbers in the past 3 years, it's reasonable to assume he can, unless his age has his skills deteriorate very suddenly - it's possible, but he's done so much at the age he's at now, it's hard to imagine that happening). If that happens, that brings him to 741 at the end of next year, and it ain't that far to Aaron after that, even if his skills start to wane at that point. I believe he's got a contract through 2006, so he's definitely planning on playing (and come on, who would quit now with what he's doing?) at least two more years. At the rate he's going, I would be very surprised if he didn't beat Aaron, and shocked if he didn't beat Ruth.
An while your point about Sosa is well taken, his numbers have declined a bit since his amazing 4 year surge. If he can get back to that level, God bless him, but it would be an amazing accomplishment to do so.
And how about runs? Bonds is on pace for 60 more this year. If he got 90 more each of the next two years (and that would be a good bit below his average the last 3-4 years), that would put him past Cobb, but not past Henderson. Still - amazingly impressive.
I have my doubts about him reaching 3,000 hits though, especially if he only plays two more years beyond this one - it will be close. He might not make a .300 lifetime average either, but is that so important? Sure, it would be nice, but we'll have to wait and see. Basically, this guy is going to have amassed some seriously impressive stats when this is all over. Am I saying this guy is Babe Ruth or Ty Cobb? Certainly not, but he's still WAY up there with the best of the best.