Posted By:
Ryan ChristoffJay,
I think exactly the opposite of what you said will happen to the market.
It's true that when/if Cuba opens up there will be plenty of people on the next plane trying to catch part of the flood of cards they anticipate will be flowing out of the island.
When they come home empty-handed and people start to notice that the supply has not changed, it will sink in that these ARE as rare they seem. Prices will INCREASE, not decrease. And I suspect the increase will be dramatic as you are not alone in your fears. Many others stay away for exactly that reason.
The only cards that come out then are the ones that are coming out now. Common issues from the 1940's for the most part, with the occasional rarity turning up. Nothing from the 1920's and nothing worth much money. The good stuff is almost all residing in collections, some in Cuba, but mostly in the U.S. at this point.
I believe there are literally more 1923-24 Billikens in Colorado right now than the rest of the world combined.
Incidentally, Scott and Kenny both have extensive experience and knowledge of the Cuban card market and I agree with their assessments.
Another factor that will increase the value of many Cuban cards is the Hall of Fame. There are still several Negro Leaguers that are almost certain to be enshrined, and a few others that have a chance. Most of them have either no cards, or only cards produced in Cuba, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, or the Dominican Republic. Mostly Cuba.
Smart HOF collectors are already aware of who these players are and aren't waiting until they become Bid McPhee, a hole in everyone's collection and a card on everyone's want list.
So get your Biz Mackey and Cristobal Torriente cards now while you still can!
Or you can always wait until Cuba opens up and they're given away on every street corner like flyers for strip clubs in Vegas.
-Ryan