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Tom L.First, PSA may bring stronger prices for now overall, but give it time. I'm not saying the graders are the only influence on a company's bottom line, but you have to be realistic. Of the vast majority of PSA cards on the market, most were graded while Mike Baker was at the PSA. I don't know how many vintage graders PSA had or has, but he certainly ran the show for quite a while and dealers and auction houses trusted him to ensure some pretty good quality control. PSA was/is probably too big to have only a single vintage grader (which may account for some of the important gaffs that we saw, like the counterfeit Ruth rookie getting slabbed), but he has a great hobby reputation. And he's at Global now. Do you think it is just coincidence that some of the large, major vintage dealers have switched in part or completely to Global?
As for the vintage cards drying up, I don't see it. First, most vintage cards haven't been slabbed. I try to buy primarily SGC, PSA, or GAI graded cards when I purchase on-line because it adds another filter in there if you don't know the dealer, but even so, my collection is probably still 90% raw. And I would bet that most vintage collectors still have a majority (or all) of their collections unslabbed. Plus, dealers and collector-dealers are endlessly resubmitting cards for better grades. I don't see the vintage market drying up for a long time, if ever.
That said, I don't know how much importance these grading companies place on the vintage market as compared to grading newer issues. But I would think that it would not be more than 10-25% of their total sales.
Again, just my opinion,
Tom