[raulus]

Curious what others think about the impact the reserve might have had on bidding activity for this piece.

My experience has been that a reserve will tend to have a chilling effect on the end of the auction. Once bidders see a reserve is in place, they have a tendency to give up, probably assuming that the reserve will not be met, so there’s no point in continuing to bid.

I’ve seen similar situations where the exact same card at the exact same auction house failed to meet the reserve at $200k, and then a month later sold for $400k with no reserve, simply because the action on the last day was so fast and furious with no reserve, and died with the reserve in place. And no, there wasn’t any big economic change in the interim, where we went from being fearful to being greedy within that window. So the economy can’t be the answer. And the 1-month interlude also wasn’t during the COVID frenzy where everything doubled every month.

All of which is a long way of wondering whether Ryan might have gotten his desired price without the reserve. Naturally, we’ll never know for sure. But it’s an interesting thought exercise, as well as a fascinating aspect of how bidders approach auctions.