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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.
As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.
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Reading the tea leaves of the market is like arguing about baseball, but my sense is that the market is pricing in the risk that there is neither strategy nor competence underpinning the tariff policies -- and that American institutions are losing their prestige both domestically and internationally. If "flight to quality" means a flight of capital to somewhere other than the US, then we have a very big problem.
I'm personally of the view that logic prevails over time, but I think the market isn't as confident about that than I am.