Quote:
Originally Posted by Vintage Vern
So outside of cards with current comp prices how does the market roll? In your example why would someone be crazy to get a card for 20x the market value if only 4 exist? There can't be much of a real market value on it, can there? Is there market value on complete sets along with individual players that kind of keep things in check. Obviously something drives the market up, and down. Is there really any true indicators for value on the lesser known, and collected players? Isn't it hard to set a value, and a market? So it basically boils down to how much will you sell vs how much someone will pay. Then how does the market move with that type of sale? I'm pretty sure I'm getting close to buying a card that sold for far less then I'm going to pay, but there's no comp to follow.
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For the most part, nothing happens until an owner decides they’re ready to sell.
Even then, they might sell it as part of a larger lot, potentially even a complete set. So you might need to be willing to buy a much larger lot that happens to include your desired piece.
It also matters what type of format the seller wants to use. They could use an auction format, in which case the 2nd highest aspiring buyer gets to set the price.
Or the seller could list it on eBay as BIN or with a really high auction starting price. Then it’s just a question of whether anyone will pay that much. If the price is high enough, it could take years to sell, or might never sell.
If you’re on the buying side, then your only options are to try to find one at auction and hope no one outbids you, or else be willing to pay whatever it takes to pry one loose from one of the current owners.
But most of the time with an issue that rare, nothing happens and the cards just stay where they are.
About the only other element is that you might be able to use a proxy to help you to estimate price. A similar player from a similar issue with similar characteristics, assuming such a thing exists and has sold recently. But even that is just an attempt to guess at market value. And unless both a potential buyer and a potential seller agree on that being a reasonable proxy, then you’re left with just negotiating.
Edited to add:
A seller could also attempt to sell through a consignment. There are several dealers and auction houses that offer this service. Often the dealer or AH knows a lot of collectors who might be interested in such a piece, and can market it on behalf of the collector. This allows the owner to expand their marking efforts beyond the population they might reach on their own, even through listing on eBay. Naturally, this service only tends to make sense if the dealer or AH expects that they can find a buyer, and expects that the value will be sufficiently high that their commission will be worth the effort. And on the flip side, some dealers and AHs will also help buyers to find stuff, often for a fee, but also usually for stuff that meets a certain minimum dollar amount.