How well do you know the buyer?
When I first started in the business, a buyer won a 99 cent Topps coin from me. The buyer claimed that the bubble envelope arrived with a slit on the side and the coin was missing. I didn't think twice and I just refunded the 99 cents plus S/H. I figured someone at the USPS was a thief but it was only 99 cents.
A few years later, I mailed a Topps coin to a buyer and the exact same thing happened. I said to myself, something is fishy here. I looked back on my records and sure enough it was the exact same buyer.
I confronted him and he never responded.
Don't always blame the USPS.
I sure miss selling on eBay.
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