There you go again, Steve, stirring things up.
The crazy is over and the desperation buying it fueled is over too, which is fine with me as a buyer and as a dealer. I view it like a correction in the stock market. We had a hell of a bull run, now we give back some of the profits. Sure, I have a few purchases I wish I'd not made, but overall, still way, way up from 2020. Going forward, the rule is pretty simple and time-tested: good stuff at fair prices sells readily; not so good stuff is good bargain-hunting. Last show I worked was Pasadena in May and I had a strong sales weekend. My eBay sales are very brisk lately. I have good stuff and I don't price-gouge. I also sell lesser material for lesser prices and it flies out of my picking boxes at shows. Same holds true as a buyer: For my PC I've won an item or two in most of the recent auctions and all but two items (a signed Joe Louis piece I'd been after for years and a signed Richard Petty card from the 1952 Topps of NASCAR sets; see my recent column live-streaming my bidding strategy that night in Heritage) were with conservative max bids that I was happy to win at and content to lose with if beaten by a higher bid. For resale, I've been able to bottom-feed readily and expect a lot more of the same as wannabes bail out (don't hate the player, hate the game).
Any dealer at the National with fairly priced good stuff will do great. Anyone catering to budgeted collectors will do great. Any dealer trying to whale hunt or gouge desperate buyers on anything mainstream will be sitting in a mini-museum.