If Skenes has a ROY season the buyer can probably double the investment. If Skenes can win a CY in the next few years the buyer can probably count on the same outcome, if not more.
Tim Lincecum was great once. He was a top-10 overall minor league prospect when he broke into the bigs. He won CY a couple years in a row at ages 24 and 25. He had a couple more good years and the rest of his short career was about as remarkable as a middle-rotation starter.
Considering these 2 scenarios, if the buyer is in it to flip it, it's not a bad gamble even if it is a gamble. If he's in it to get a future HOF'r or a player with an otherwise notable career then that's a hell of a gamble the buyer is playing.
Hell, in this era you gotta cross your fingers and hope they're not into roids, inappropriate sex, or beating women as well as any talent that might fail.
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