Quote:
Originally Posted by G1911
Yes it is the standard. If you're going to post that X group has a problem with being pedophiles, that group better turn out to be statistically prone to that charge. When you say a group or organization has a problem with being pedophiles, obviously that should be a statistically valid claim. That's an extremely serious charge, why shouldn't the claim be statistically robust? A few names out of many thousands to paint MLB as having a pedo problem is pretty weird and so far out of left field nobody saw that ball coming.
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Ok fine. I'll play a bit more. According to the Baseball Almanac, there have been 20,618 players who have played in an MLB game since 1876. The number of players who have played since 1947 is around 11,000, according to the Society for American Baseball Research. I recall reading somewhere that Albert Pujols, who started in 2001, was around player number 16,000. In any given year, there are about 1,000 MLB players on all the rosters. I'm going to estimate that the number of of MLB players who have played since 1996 is around 5,500, or half the total who have played since 1947. Happy to be challenged on the exact number, but I cannot find it easily.
I use 1996 as the base year because that was the year that New York passed the Sex Offender registry law, and there is online data available. It also happens to be the case that the 8 players that I named in my last post all played after 1996.
I compared the convicted sex offender registration rate in the top 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York (adjusted for the number of males between 18-64 in those zip codes) with that of the estimated MLB population since 1996. Why do I choose the 15 wealthiest zip codes? It's not perfect, but someone made the point that pedophilia might be as common among bankers, lawyers and teachers as it is among MLB players. I thought that bankers and lawyers, at least, might be more represented in the top 15 zip codes than in other areas. MLB players are also more likely to themselves be in a high income bracket.
The result is that the MLB sex offense rate is more than 2x that of the 15 wealthiest zip codes in New York. If you break it down by individual zip code, the MLB rate is higher than 13 out of the 15 zip codes. (For those who are curious, MLB did better than zip codes 10007 and 10013, which accounted for only about 7.5% of the total population set.)
Note that the sex offender registry includes all sex crimes, whereas my MLB examples only included offenses against underage victims. If I had the stomach to go case by case in the New York registry and strip out the guys who only commited offenses against adults, I suspect that the numbers would come out even worse for the baseball players.