The full tracker has tabs for previous years so you can see the difference in percentages of votes players received on ballots released before and after the results were announced. In general, the percent of votes received by someone is lower on the ballots released after the results are announced or never released at all than the percent received on ballots released before the results are announced. However, there are some players that do better so you can't always say for certain what will happen.
Beltre appears to be a lock at this point since he has only been left off of 2 ballots out of 166 reported as of 8:00 AM on January 17.
Mauer appears to have a decent chance since he's at 82.5%, but since it's his first year, there's no way to know how he will do on unreleased ballots compared to the already released ballots.
Helton is also at 82.5%. Last year, he was at 78.6% before the results were released and ended at 72.2% of the total so he went down. Since he's currently a little higher than last year, he may just get in or just miss. However, he needed to gain 11 votes from last year, and so far, he's picked up 4 votes from returning voters and also lost 4 votes from returning voters so no net gain. Of course, the voting pool changes every year, and he has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. All of the above indicates it will again be very close for Helton this year.
Wagner is at 79.5% currently. Last year, he was at 72.3% before results were announced and ended at 68.1% so he also went down. He needed to pick up 27 votes and so far only has a net increase of 7 from returning voters compared to last year and also has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. If the same pattern is seen this year, it looks like Wagner will likely fall a little short.
Sheffield is at 74.7% currently. He dropped from 62.6% to end at 55.0% last year, but since this is his last year on the ballot, his results could be different. He needed 78 more votes and so far only has a net increase of 11, and he's received 8 out of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year which is only 66.7%. I think it's likely Sheffield does not get in this year.
Andruw Jones is at 71.7% currently and dropped from 66.5% to 58.1% last year so it also looks unlikely he gets in this year.
Beltran is at 66.3% and also dropped last year so it looks unlikely for his as well. However, some voters may have decided not to vote for him the first year because of the Astros cheating scandal he was part of but be more willing to vote for him now. Whether it's enough to get him in remains to be seen, but so far, it looks doubtful.
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