Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman
I've done a lot of predictive modeling in other markets that account for seasonality, and it doesn't really have much of an effect on higher net worth individuals. It's primarily a financial pressure on the middle and lower classes with respect to spending habits. I suspect this is why they still run their larger auctions because they really only care about the big ticket items anyhow, and those hammer prices aren't really going to be affected by seasonality. That said, other factors like interest rates, political and social unrest, and conflicts abroad all certainly do have measurable effects across all income levels.
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This all makes sense, thanks. I would add one other possibility, something which I think I noticed from doing shows for 20 years: Perhaps somewhat counterintuitively, baseball collectors seem to be more engaged in their hobby in the off-seasons, perhaps less distracted by the actual games and pennant races going on during them.