[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by G1911

I have no idea on how many Herpolsheimer sets would have been made, 100, 500, 1,0000.

Part of the problem is that the quantity known today is usually impossible to know outside of the sets so rare the hobby keeps perfect track of them; even if we had all production data for everything we'd be missing another of the 2 figures for most sets. And what the hobby knows and tracks is different from what survives as we keep finding cards that have not previously hit the market or hobby before (usually they are just T206's or something and not that exciting, but new to the hobby).

The surviving data on the T cards suggests to me a survival rate of somewhere between .1 and .4%. But even assuming this is all correct and my deductions perfect, it doesn't mean other card types survive at the same rate. Cracker Jacks could be vastly different because they were issued in a product more for kids, an audience to keep the cards, got their hands on or less because of the crappy thin stock. The 1914's mention the 15,000,000 figure but it's not quite clear that is the entirety of the print run. Other cards mention 10,000,000 as the print run, so it may have been a made-up claim to sound important in the first place. 15,000,000 would be 104,166.67 of each card printed. There's not more than, I don't know, 300-400 or so of each one today? That would put it in similar survival range.

With how Herpolsheimers were distributed, evidently entirely for kids, I would guess their survival rate would be a bit higher. For very rare sets though the luck factor of a stash surviving is far more significant.

On the Herpolsheimer's, I think the ad that SteveD found convinces me that they gave them out with the suits, and these were circulated in Grand Rapids in 1921, but there may not be any more left to be found.