[raulus]

I'm not really convinced that the general cardboard market has an impact here. Does anyone really think that the bidders will set their max bid based on how the general cardboard market has been trending lately? I'm not seeing it.

This seems like a relatively straightforward competition. A crazy rare item, (arguably?) a rookie card, of the game's most well-known player. Get all the biggest fat cats from our world with virtually limitless resources together and they start bidding. It's anyone's guess when they will stop.

Given all of the advertising around this auction, it's not like a serious potential bidder is going to miss it. So it's really just a question of how high the last 2 bidders are willing to go, and when does the underbidder finally tap out?

The final price will likely boil down to psychology and how emboldened that underbidder is feeling at the moment. There are theories around here that crazy rich people are disciplined and not susceptible to the same sorts of emotions and passions as us commoners. But I would argue they're just as human as the rest of us. Trouble with the wife (or mistress), a drop in their company's stock price, a lawsuit that just took a turn for the worse, and the bidder is likely to be just a little less determined. But a few of them will go nuts because they decide they can't live without this piece. Since their bank account balance starts with a B, they won't be constrained by petty resource limitations like us mortals.

Personally, given how infrequently these come onto the market in any condition, I'm taking the over. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $20M, and it might even blow that away.