Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman
Sounds about right to me, Michael. I was talking about that exact thing with a longtime board member/dealer yesterday. Mainstream stuff is softening. Oddball stuff is hit and miss, same as ever. Rare stuff is rare stuff: when it comes up, the right buyers will pay up, same as ever.
I think we are for sure seeing some sanity creep back into the market for abundant mainstream cards, even pre-war. That said, I don't see the equilibrium prices as too far off simply because there are so many people waiting to get in on bigger names and cards whose price consciousness only goes back a decade or less and who don't have the deep benches that longtime collectors have. If a low-grade Goudey Ruth slips by 30%-50%, many of those buyers will be excited to get in and get their first card, even if it is still a multiple of what it was a decade ago. My perspective is similarly flawed by my time collecting: what I think of cheap hasn't been that for a very long time.
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The good news/bad news is that percentages are much more powerful on the way down. A piece that jumps 100% but then later falls 50% is right back where it started. So percentage-wise, a little bit goes a long way on the way down.
Math!!