I don't think there are 10 that I would put in, generally the Hall has done well in this era. I am excising Helton, because he has 5 more writers ballots he is eligible on and he got 72% last time, the odds are 99% he is elected before he hits a veterans committee ballot, so it doesn't feel like he is being forgotten or underrated. Billy Wagner is at 68% and has 2 more ballots, he is also 90%+ likely to be elected and so excised here.
In order:
1. Curt Schilling - he is in a new class here. The writers have generally done a good job historically, with the egregious choices coming from corrupt veterans committee's. They elected Ted Williams, who they hated, year 1 with 93.4% of the vote when almost nobody hit 90%. But Schilling is out and Ortiz is in on pure corruption and politics from the press. If Schilling was a nice dude, he would be in. If he was an obnoxious prick but made a joke about hanging the deplorables the media hates instead, he would be in. A good argument can be made that the HOF should not include pitchers of Schilling's caliber, but that is not the line the HOF has actually drawn with its choices. 80 WAR is well above the mark, to pick just one stat. There's no honest argument that Schilling does not meet the general statistical standards.
2. Jeff Kent - One of the top 6 or 7 2B offensively. Suffers from a weird career trajectory and being overshadowed by Bonds during his peak. Also kind of a prick. I have a hard time seeing how he is not a HOF 2B. I would rate him over a lot of the 2B elected, not just the absolute worst.
3. Rich Allen - Longevity is his problem, no one thinks his peak is not worthy. His rate states are truly great, but his counting is weak and he was a team problem.
4. Tommy John - pretty hard to excise him when Kaat, Sutton, Hunter, etc. are in. Pretty much all the pitchers just like him are in.
5. Vida Blue & Luis Tiant - WAR likes Tiant a lot more but they are almost the same stat line.
6. Omar Vizquel - Whether or not he is guilty of the charges won't matter, he was trending to make it shortly before they appeared. Baseball and the media no longer care about actual guilt and so it's irrelevant, he will never get in either way. I probably wouldn't vote for him, but I don't think defense only is generally worthy of the hall. The presence of Maranville and Smith in the HOF suggests the general HOF standard incorporates Vizquel. If it was purely my opinion, I would probably not include him in the top 10 but he rates higher when compared to the actual hall standard than he does where I would put him.
7. Will Clark - Look at the stats and it sounds less absurd. Borderline.
8. Ken Boyer - Right on the borderline, probably the best 3B not in but also not unfairly ignored.
9. Lou Whitaker - He's almost certain to go in on an eras committee ballot. WAR likes him a lot more than I think his actual production is worth.
10. Kenny Lofton - Lot of counting stats, fast, good glove, WAR likes him. 107 OPS+ is where I dock him and others don't; his bat was just a little over league average and that's hard to justify for a HOFer. Rickey was at 127, Raines at 123. That he fell off the ballot immediately is a travesty, but I'm not sure he should actually be elected. Man deserved an honest appraisal, as did Carlos Delgado.
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