Quote:
Originally Posted by Hankphenom
It will be fascinating to see how the reality stacks up with these pretty much consensus predictions. If the bubble has truly burst on modern, the room, including tables, should be full of 20 and 30 somethings desperately looking to dump as much as they can before the music stops altogether.
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This is not in the least how inexperience in investing currently works. I expect little to no impact whatsoever on attendance, nor fire sales. We are still 12 to 24 months from visible impact of demand.
When the meme stocks crashed it was a continuous disbelief, much like many echo in these threads at time, that a rebound is always coming and to "buy the dip". People had been making so much, it was incomputable mentally that a drop could be real. They piled as much as they could borrow into dead ideas like GME and AMC, long after the short squeeze was over and compounded the losses they already had exponentially in order to regain on the losses they already accrued in a effort to flip the story.
The exact same thing is happening with the flip community as they share much of the same experience and lack of it. They are continuing to buy modern at the dip thinking the rebound is coming. They are shoring up vintage from notable drops by discussing it as a hedge while they wait for the modern boom to circle back. The same flippers are focused on the big names like Mantle, Aaron, etc and adding them in an attempt to stabilize like a stock to bond transition. They are dipping into prewar big names to have holds.
No true effect on the valuation or market can be actually calculated until the desperation slows and we are not close to that point as of yet. You need to be watching the modern boards and YouTube to have any grasp on the current trends. Any feedback on this National that proclaims the market is steady is no different than Disney telling me their newest reboot is a massive hit because of a strong opening weekend and ignoring that the second drops 80%.
We are not there...at all.
For an example this is how the desperate move. One big win, several years of dragging mud…and this is still 75% overvalue to logic.
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Last edited by JustinD; 07-25-2023 at 10:08 AM.
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